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Totalitarianism can be conceptualized as a realization of utopia (or rather antiutopia) of "barracks socialism". We do know that victim of such "social experiment" was a third of world population beginning from the USSR. Since 1989 the process of dez- utopization of anti-utopian societies was began. Some "socialist" countries are on this way relatively far towards democracy and market economy. Others (including Russia) are only in the beginning of such moving. Many in fact did not begin yet but surely will begin in the perspective of next two-three decades.

From this point of view one of the most effective forecasts of the Russia's future is methodology of qualitative historical analogy. If quasi-democrats of 1991-1997 (pre- senting interests of compradors) will continue to govern in next years, so Russia will be more and more like a giant Colombia. If communists or nationalists (interests of lumpens) will come, so moscow will be the second Habana or Bagdad. For moving in the direction to Warzsaw, Budapest, Prague we need democrats presenting interests of national bourgeoisie, i.e. of mass entrepreneurship (non-compradors!). But till now such political forces did not yet composed. Today the most probable way into the future is the "colombian"one. But after Eltsin the probability of other variants will arise according results of current political struggle.

This is the general picture. But Russia has many specifications not existing in any other countries of the world. That is why we need systems of indicators for such specifications. It is impossible to elaborate such indicators without help of sociology.

In 1991-95 in Department of Social Forecasting, Institute of Sociology, Russian Aca demy of Sciences there was developped the Research Project "Perspectives of Russia Transformation". It was in fact a monitoring (expertise yearly) and scenario building on this base. Such approach did give possibility to anticipate many important events (like Putsch-1991 or President-Parliament War of 1993) before some half-year or even 8-10 months. It is important that such approach gives a possibility to evaluate probable concequences of planned decisions - main effect of social forecasts. Report on the Project is in progress in the Moscow University Publ. House.